Back on the Saddle

 

We are very grateful to be back, and we look forward to continuing the sharing our investing strategies ideas we started last year. A lot had taken place, changes galore on many aspects of life; on economics, the government, social and culturally, we have a new working progress continuum, yet not completely back to a normal situation, mostly a revolving change carousel. Relationships had changed, at work, with family, and in general, on every aspect of life as we knew before the Covid 19 Pandemic, the Presidential Election, and the lockdowns. 

We must have the flexibility to adapt to the environment we have to function and try to keep a positive outlook for the long term. God willing we will bounce back and do the best we can to continue our lives the best we can with the hand we were dealt. 

The stock market has recovered from the March 2020 correction. We did well considering all that took place last year. We were able to gain a 30% profit for the year. And we hope that our current strategy will enable us to stay the course and keep the current positive trend. Our current allocation for the TSP is 50% C and 50% S. So far we are still beating the market 6% vs. 3.48% on the S&P 500 as of this writing.  

Stay healthy, be safe, take care, keep calm and carry on.

Waiting for a rebound

The market continues to erode last year gains, the losses take us back to a complete year by now. Since Monday 24 FEB 2020 the coronavirus cases continued to increase around the globe, and the market decline is now a correction. At this point, we recommend staying put on the sidelines (stay on the G Fund on TSP) if you want to you could consider going partially to the F fund as a way to compensate for the time on hold.

Hopefully, the rebound of the S&P 500 should be within the near future but consider that in three weeks the market lost about 20% or a complete year gains. If all works out that could easily take a year-long period to go back to the all-time market highs of early February 2020.

Outside, the alternative is clearly (TLT) for the time being. The time to pick up bargains would be when the MACD starts turning around which has not happened yet, at this point I would feel comfortable getting the golden cross signal before going long on SPY or QQQ.  Stay safe and happy returns, everyone!

On the Selloff

Stocks took a big hit on Monday 24 FEB 2020, since FEB 2018 was one of the worst days on record as the coronavirus cases spike around the globe.  At this point, we should go to the sidelines (go to G Fund on TSP) or outside, the alternatives are clearly (SHY, TLT, DRIP, TMF, and GLD) to name a few.

We should wait for the market to reach the bottom and bounce back before returning to the C fund, or SPY, QQQ, and other value increasing stocks. The time to pick up bargains would be when the MACD starts turning around and head back up on a bounce. I equate that to Stocks on SALE! Some of the stocks that I look to pick would be TSLA, PALL, ZM, NVDA, and WORK. On the index ETF's I would go to the SPY, and QQQ.

For now, the time is for taking a breather and stay on the sidelines.

Be on the lookout, happy returns everyone!
 

January a wash

January was officially a wash, the S & P 500 only got 0.1% on the books, the pullback had been fueled by multiple uncertain conditions affecting the world economy, the Chinese coronavirus spreading to other countries, the ongoing politics with the impeachment process, and looking back to historical data February is going to be most probably a continuation of the current downward trend. We hope to be wrong on a dimmed outlook, we are looking for a good change.

We recognize the headwinds with China confirmed 9,692 cases on the coronavirus, with 213 deaths. It is not a good picture when the threat of infection has spread to 18 other countries, dampening the global sentiment in terms of economic growth, and the World Health Organization (WHO) has officially designated a global health emergency.

Life is not all about the money, yet we still have to protect each other, wash hands, eat healthily, take your vitamins, don't rub your face, stay home when feeling sick, don't spread germs around. Let's hope everyone gets better and travel and trade return to a better stance on springtime.

In the meantime stay tuned as our strategy for the moment is still a defensive posture reminding on the G fund until we get a bounce out of the S & P 500 index with a signal on an improving MACD confirmation.

Stay healthy and good returns everyone!   

Trade Alert

As of today, 26 JAN 2020 it would be prudent to go to the G fund if you can not tolerate losing $ on a pullback. On Friday the SPY had a 0.90 % decline since the beginning of the year, reducing the net gain to 2.10% for the year to date gains. Going forward I believe in testing a new strategy and staying on the C fund as long as it remains as the top performer of the group {F fund = AGG iShares Barclays, C fund = SPY S&P 500 index, S fund = DAX Dow Jones index, I fund = EFA iShares MSCI index}.

In other words, we are actively conducting a year-long test of two different strategies;

Strategy A = we are going to cash every time there is a decline with a sell signal on the MACD running chart on the C fund. We got the confirmed signal on Friday closing.

Strategy B = we will stay on the C fund as long as it remains the leader of the group, no matter the declines. At the end of the year, we will have the top strategy to follow with the results as the market goes about up or down. The bottom line is we are always looking to optimize profit gains.

Good returns every one!   

Year end closing

The year was ending on a high note, and then we get a change on the current trend, there has been a good overall return for everyone in the stock market. Today was a bit of a pullback, the bull might be taking a breather here, we can't expect to be on a permanent rally. The market has become overbought when the RSI is higher than 70, we might see a level off or sideways channeling going forward on the trades.

When the market is rising everyone can feel like a genius, now when the market turns from bull to bear, we can start getting that sinking feeling. We might have to go on a defensive move to go the G fund "pronto" and sit on the sidelines for a little bit. The MACD and 10-day moving average will be followed very closely tomorrow morning as we turn the page and put 2019 on the books as one with above-average returns (40%) give or take. A MACD convergence will signal the confirmation on the trend change.

The long term strategy is about minimizing the risk and avoid losing the big picture, stay tuned a trade alert might be on the near horizon.

Just in case tomorrow we don't get a signal confirmation...have a happy New Year and good returns to all! 

Disclaimer

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and should not be interpreted as an offer or solicitation
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